دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب

صفحه اصلی / دومین همایش دوسالانه پژوهش های نوپدید در حسابداری،مالی و مدیریت

A Foresight-Based Approach to Financial Robustness of the Insurance Industry under Wartime Crisis Conditions

نویسندگان :

Mostafa Esmaeilnia Mansour¹ Norouz Noorollahzadeh² Seyedeh Mahbubeh Jafari³ Shahram Chaharmahali⁴

1- واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران 2- واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران 3- واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران 4- دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب

کلمات کلیدی :

Financial Resilience،Wartime Insurance،MICMAC Analysis،Capital Adequacy،Liquidity Management،ISM

چکیده :

This study investigates the factors influencing financial resilience in Iran’s insurance sector under wartime conditions, using the case of the historical 12-day Iran-Israel conflict as a contextual backdrop. Employing an Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) approach combined with MICMAC analysis, ten key factors were identified, including Capital Adequacy, Liquidity Management, Risk Diversification, Regulatory Compliance, Technological Infrastructure, Human Capital Expertise, Strategic Alliances, Operational Resilience, Market Adaptability, and Information Transparency. Experts in insurance operations participated in pairwise comparisons to construct a Structural Self-Interaction Matrix (SSIM), which was then converted into a Reachability Matrix to define hierarchical relationships among factors. MICMAC analysis further classified these factors into driving, dependent, linkage, and autonomous categories based on their driving power and dependence, highlighting the critical levers of resilience. Results indicate that foundational factors such as Capital Adequacy, Liquidity Management, and Risk Diversification serve as primary drivers, while human capital, operational resilience, and market adaptability are largely dependent on these drivers. Linkage and autonomous factors, including Technological Infrastructure and Information Transparency, support the system but are sensitive to changes in other factors. The findings provide actionable insights for insurers and policymakers to prioritize interventions, allocate resources effectively, and develop strategic frameworks that enhance the stability and adaptability of the insurance sector under high-risk, wartime conditions.